Saturday, September 18, 2010
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
The Dunning-Kruger effect
The masses are a$$es ... and so are their handlers. We already knew this. But did you know there is a theory for it it? Dear (and likely imaginary) Reader, I'll leave the specifics of local and global applications up to you. More colloquially known as "confident dumb people." Post cheerfully cribbed from Wikipedia
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which an unskilled person makes poor decisions and reaches erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to realize their mistakes. The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to the situation in which less competent people rate their own ability higher than more competent people. It also explains why actual competence may weaken self-confidence: because competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. "Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."
The Dunning–Kruger effect was put forward by Justin Kruger and David Dunning. Similar notions have been expressed–albeit less scientifically–for some time. Dunning and Kruger themselves quote Darwin ("Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge") and Bertrand Russell ("One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision."
The Dunning–Kruger effect is not, however, concerned narrowly with high-order cognitive skills (much less their application in the political realm during a particular era, which is what Russell was talking about. Nor is it specifically limited to the observation that ignorance of a topic is conducive to overconfident assertions about it, which is what Darwin was saying. Indeed, Dunning et al. cite a study saying that 94% of college professors rank their work as "above average" (relative to their peers), to underscore that the highly intelligent and informed are hardly exempt. Rather, the effect is about paradoxical defects in perception of skill, in oneself and others, regardless of the particular skill and its intellectual demands, whether it is chess, playing golf or driving a car.
The hypothesized phenomenon was tested in a series of experiments performed by Justin Kruger and David Dunning, then both of Cornell University. Kruger and Dunning noted earlier studies suggesting that ignorance of standards of performance is behind a great deal of incompetence. This pattern was seen in studies of skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis.
Kruger and Dunning proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:
Links
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which an unskilled person makes poor decisions and reaches erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to realize their mistakes. The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to the situation in which less competent people rate their own ability higher than more competent people. It also explains why actual competence may weaken self-confidence: because competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. "Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."
The Dunning–Kruger effect was put forward by Justin Kruger and David Dunning. Similar notions have been expressed–albeit less scientifically–for some time. Dunning and Kruger themselves quote Darwin ("Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge") and Bertrand Russell ("One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision."
The Dunning–Kruger effect is not, however, concerned narrowly with high-order cognitive skills (much less their application in the political realm during a particular era, which is what Russell was talking about. Nor is it specifically limited to the observation that ignorance of a topic is conducive to overconfident assertions about it, which is what Darwin was saying. Indeed, Dunning et al. cite a study saying that 94% of college professors rank their work as "above average" (relative to their peers), to underscore that the highly intelligent and informed are hardly exempt. Rather, the effect is about paradoxical defects in perception of skill, in oneself and others, regardless of the particular skill and its intellectual demands, whether it is chess, playing golf or driving a car.
The hypothesized phenomenon was tested in a series of experiments performed by Justin Kruger and David Dunning, then both of Cornell University. Kruger and Dunning noted earlier studies suggesting that ignorance of standards of performance is behind a great deal of incompetence. This pattern was seen in studies of skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis.
Kruger and Dunning proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:
- tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
- fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
- fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;
- recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they can be trained to substantially improve.
Links
- post about DKE on "You Are Not So Smart," subtitled "a celebration of self-delusion" (how apropos) and self-described as " a blog devoted to self delusion and irrational thinking." Flâneuse is putting this one on the rss reader immediately
- The Anosognosic's Dilemma (Opinionator, NYT)
- Confident Dumb People (Boing Boing)
- DKE even has its own web site
- and b-net tells you what to do about it
It's everywhere: government, management, organizations, the education system. Spread the word, warn everybody.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
maquillage du blog
Overdue part deux of post-downer recovery from doing the digital for the public weal. It is not enough to change editorial course or resume a previous one, ever bearing in mind that the very notion of any kind of heading is contrary to the principles of flânerie. Whether nostos or heading off in an entirely new direction, one must also look different. Appearance and costume matter. Nothing quite like remodeling or a face lift for a psychic pick-me-up. Can't afford either, so it's just as well the inclination is lacking in other spheres. Electronically, enter new templates and features for blog makeovers. Maquillage... in art and flânerie.
I've been redecorating the rest of my personal blogosphere. Design choices range from elegant to clean lined simplicity, a green grass, blue skies evocative of picnics under a summer sky or dignified without being stuffy.
I've been redecorating the rest of my personal blogosphere. Design choices range from elegant to clean lined simplicity, a green grass, blue skies evocative of picnics under a summer sky or dignified without being stuffy.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
global e-flânerie
reposted from Omnivore, Book Forum's splendid blog of links briefly annotated and grouped thematically, adding up to
A proper philosophy of globalization
From Synthesis Philosophica, Zagorka Golubovic (Belgrade): Philosophical Principles as a Foundation of the Concept of Globalisation; Arto Mutanen (Lappeenranta): About the Possibility of a Proper Philosophy of Globalization; Tomas Kacerauskas (VGTU): Discourse of Globalization: Bios, Techne, and Logos from the Phenomenological Point of View; Tomaz Grusovnik (Primorska): A Distant View: Globalization Inside Philosophy; Bela Mester (HAS): Space and Time in a Global World; Vojko Strahovnik (Ljubljana): Globalization, Globalized Ethics and Moral Theory; Mislav Kukoc (Spli): Liberal Philosophy and Globalization; Dragica Vujadinovic (Belgrade): Global Civil Society as Concept and Practice in the Processes of Globalization; and Gottfried Kuenzlen (UniBw): The Other Side of Globalisation: The New Power of Religion as a Cultural and Political Challenge. From the Journal of Critical Globalisation Studies, James Brassett (Warwick):Cosmopolitan Sentiments After 9-11: Trauma and the Politics of Vulnerability; Nick Srnicek (LSE): Conflict Networks: Collapsing the Global into the Local; Victoria Ridler (Birkbeck): Word and World: The Imperium of Reason and Possibility of Critique; and a roundtable discussion on Transnational Militancy in the 21st Century. Are nations going extinct? Our conception of what constitutes a "country" is deteriorating — say hello to post-national entities, "other guys" that stand outside of the dominant system. Beyond city limits: The age of nations is over — the new urban age has begun. A review of Tax Havens: How Globalization Really Works by Ronen Palan, Richard Murphy, and Christian Chavagneux. From Newsweek, a special section on the world's best countries. World's Happiest Countries: Bhutan started the gross national happiness trend, but here's what Gallup did with it. From Foreign Policy, an article on the geopolitics of Google Earth: It's not just for busting swimming pool cheats.
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